Systems and methods for collaborative offer generation

ABSTRACT

Systems and methods for a collaborative offer portal is provided. A proposed offer is received from a manufacturer, including an offer structure and a number of consumers they wish to target. Transaction logs of a retailer are accessed to determine an audience for the offer by calculating a return on investment (ROI) for the customer base using the retailer&#39;s records given the offer type. The consumers are then grouped by their ROI distribution, and the ROI for the deal is calculated based upon the offer size in light of this distribution. From the offer ROI a discount percentage to be paid by the retailer versus the merchant can be created. The retailer may then choose to accept the offer for deployment.

CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATION

This continuation-in-part application claims the benefit of U.S.application entitled “Systems and Methods for Intelligent PromotionDesign in Bric and Mortar Retailers with Promotion Scoring,” U.S.application Ser. No. 16/120,178, filed Aug. 31, 2018, by Rapperport etal., which is a continuation application and claims the benefit of U.S.application Ser. No. 15/990,005, filed May 25, 2018, of the same title,which is a continuation-in-part application and claims the benefit ofU.S. application Ser. No. 14/209,851, filed Mar. 13, 2014, entitled“Architecture and Methods for Promotion Optimization,” by Moran, nowU.S. Pat. No. 9,984,387 issued May 29, 2018, which claims priority under35 U.S.C. 119(e) to a commonly owned U.S. Provisional Application No.61/780,630, filed Mar. 13, 2013, entitled “Architecture and Methods forPromotion Optimization,” by Moran. application Ser. No. 15/990,005 alsoclaims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Application No. 62/576,742, filedOct. 25, 2017, entitled “Architecture and Methods for GeneratingIntelligent Offers with Dynamic Base Prices” by Rapperport et al.Additionally, U.S. application Ser. No. 16/120,178 claims priority toU.S. Provisional Application No. 62/553,133, filed Sep. 1, 2017,entitled “Systems and Methods for Promotion Optimization” by Rapperportet al.

The present invention is additionally related to the followingapplications and patents, all of which are incorporated herein byreference:

Commonly owned U.S. application Ser. No. 14/231,426, filed on Mar. 31,2014, entitled “Adaptive Experimentation and Optimization in AutomatedPromotional Testing,” by Moran et al.

Commonly owned U.S. application Ser. No. 14/231,432, filed on Mar. 31,2014, entitled “Automated and Optimal Promotional Experimental TestDesigns Incorporating Constraints,” by Moran et al., now U.S. Pat. No.9,940,639 issued Apr. 10, 2018.

Commonly owned U.S. application Ser. No. 14/231,440, filed on Mar. 31,2014, entitled “Automatic Offer Generation Using Concept GeneratorApparatus and Methods Therefor,” by Moran et al.

Commonly owned U.S. application Ser. No. 14/231,442, filed on Mar. 31,2014, entitled “Automated Event Correlation to Improve PromotionalTesting,” by Moran et al., now U.S. Pat. No. 9,940,640 issued Apr. 10,2018.

Commonly owned U.S. application Ser. No. 14/231,460, filed on Mar. 31,2014, entitled “Automated Promotion Forecasting and Methods Therefor,”by Moran et al.

Commonly owned U.S. application Ser. No. 14/231,555, filed on Mar. 31,2014, entitled “Automated Behavioral Economics Patterns in PromotionTesting and Methods Therefor,” by Moran et al., now U.S. Pat. No.10,140,629 issued Nov. 27, 2018.

All the applications/patents listed above are incorporated herein intheir entirety by this reference.

BACKGROUND

The present invention relates generally to price optimization methodsand apparatus therefor. More particularly, the present invention relatesto computer-implemented methods and computer-implemented apparatus forthe generation of promotions through a facilitation of the manufacturerand retailer relationship to deliver optimal promotion structure. Thesystems and methods likewise provide means for then democratizing theredemption of a coupon or offer on the backend, thereby providingretailers and manufacturers greater reach to their consumers.

Promotion refers to various practices designed to increase sales of aparticular product or services and/or the profit associated with suchsales. Generally speaking, the public often associates promotion withthe sale of consumer goods and services, including consumer packagedgoods (e.g., food, home and personal care), consumer durables (e.g.,consumer appliances, consumer electronics, automotive leasing), consumerservices (e.g., retail financial services, health care, insurance, homerepair, beauty and personal care), and travel and hospitality (e.g.,hotels, airline flights, and restaurants). Promotion is particularlyheavily involved in the sale of consumer packaged goods (e.g., consumergoods packaged for sale to an end consumer). However, promotion occursin almost any industry that offers goods or services to a buyer (whetherthe buyer is an end consumer or an intermediate entity between theproducer and the end consumer).

The term promotion may refer to, for example, providing discounts (usingfor example a physical or electronic coupon or code) designed to, forexample, promote the sales volume of a particular product or service.One aspect of promotion may also refer to the bundling of goods orservices to create a more desirable selling unit such that sales volumemay be improved. Another aspect of promotion may also refer to themerchandising design (with respect to looks, weight, design, color,etc.) or displaying of a particular product with a view to increasingits sales volume. It includes calls to action or marketing claims usedin-store, on marketing collaterals, or on the package to drive demand.Promotions may be composed of all or some of the following: price basedclaims, secondary displays or aisle end-caps in a retail store, shelfsignage, temporary packaging, placement in a retailercircular/flyer/coupon book, a colored price tag, advertising claims, orother special incentives intended to drive consideration and purchasebehavior. These examples are meant to be illustrative and not limiting.

In addition to promotional activities, it is also desirable to performoptimizations of base pricing (e.g. non-promotional prices). Oftenretailers rely upon manufacturer's suggested retail pricing (MSRP) forsetting of base prices. In other circumstances, base prices are setbased upon competitive analysis—a retailer may monitor competitor's andmatch or beat the competitor's price on some or all the goods in astore. Alternatively, some retailers may set a desired margin, or salesvolume, for a good, and set prices accordingly. Generally however, thebase prices of goods in a brick-and-mortar store do not varysignificantly due to logistical concerns of updating signage and pointof sales (POS) databases, consumer expectation of generally consistentbase prices, and the tendency that a retailer will continue patterns ofbehavior (e.g., “this is what we have always done”).

In discussing various embodiments of the present invention, the sale ofconsumer packaged goods (hereinafter “CPG”) is employed to facilitatediscussion and ease of understanding. It should be kept in mind,however, that the promotion and base pricing optimization methods andapparatuses discussed herein may apply to any industry in which there isany pricing flexibility in the past or may be employed in the future.

Further, price discount is employed as an example to explain thepromotion methods and apparatuses herein. It should be understood,however, that promotion optimization may be employed to manipulatefactors other than price discount in order to influence the salesvolume. An example of such other factors may include the call to actionon a display or on the packaging, the size of the CPG item, the mannerin which the item is displayed or promoted or advertised either in thestore or in media, etc.

Generally speaking, it has been estimated that, on average, 17% of therevenue in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry is spent to fundvarious types of promotions, including discounts, designed to enticeconsumers to try and/or to purchase the packaged goods. In a typicalexample, the retailer (such as a grocery store) may offer a discountonline or via a print circular to consumers. The promotion may bespecifically targeted to an individual consumer (based on, for example,that consumer's demographics or past buying behavior). The discount mayalternatively be broadly offered to the general public. Examples ofpromotions offered to general public include for example, a printed orelectronic redeemable discount (e.g., coupon or code) for a specific CPGitem. Another promotion example may include, for example, generaladvertising of the reduced price of a CPG item in a particulargeographic area. Another promotion example may include in-store markingdown of a particular CPG item only for a loyalty card user base.

In an example, if the consumer redeems the coupon or electronic code,the consumer is entitled to a reduced price for the CPG item. Therevenue loss to the retailer due to the redeemed discount may bereimbursed, wholly or partly, by the manufacturer of the CPG item in aseparate transaction.

Because promotion and base price testing is expensive (in terms of, forexample, the effort to conduct a promotion campaign, modify displayprices and/or the per-unit revenue loss to the retailer/manufacturerwhen the consumer decides to take advantage of the discount), effortsare continually made to minimize promotion cost while maximizing thereturn on promotion dollars investment. This effort is known in theindustry as promotion optimization.

For example, a typical promotion optimization method may involveexamining the sales volume of a particular CPG item over time (e.g.,weeks). The sales volume may be represented by a demand curve as afunction of time, for example. A demand curve lift (excess overbaseline) or dip (below baseline) for a particular time period would beexamined to understand why the sales volume for that CPG item increasesor decreases during such time period.

FIG. 1 shows an example demand curve 102 for Brand X cookies over someperiod of time. Two lifts 110 and 114 and one dip 112 in demand curve102 are shown in the example of FIG. 1. Lift 110 shows that the demandfor Brand X cookies exceeds the baseline at least during week 2. Byexamining the promotion effort that was undertaken at that time (e.g.,in the vicinity of weeks 1-4 or week 2) for Brand X cookies, marketershave in the past attempted to judge the effectiveness of the promotioneffort on the sales volume. If the sales volume is deemed to have beencaused by the promotion effort and delivers certain financialperformance metrics, that promotion effort is deemed to have beensuccessful and may be replicated in the future in an attempt to increasethe sales volume. On the other hand, dip 112 is examined in an attemptto understand why the demand falls off during that time (e.g., weeks 3and 4 in FIG. 1). If the decrease in demand was due to the promotion inweek 2 (also known as consumer pantry loading or retailerforward-buying, depending on whether the sales volume shown reflects thesales to consumers or the sales to retailers), this decrease in weeks 3and 4 should be counted against the effectiveness of week 2.

One problem with the approach employed in the prior art has been thefact that the prior art approach is a backward-looking approach based onaggregate historical data. In other words, the prior art approachattempts to ascertain the nature and extent of the relationship betweenthe promotion and the sales volume by examining aggregate data collectedin the past. The use of historical data, while having some disadvantages(which are discussed later herein below), is not necessarily a problem.However, when such data is in the form of aggregate data (such as insimple terms of sales volume of Brand X cookies versus time for aparticular store or geographic area), it is impossible to extract fromsuch aggregate historical data all of the other factors that may morelogically explain a particular lift or dip in the demand curve.

To elaborate, current promotion and base price optimization approachestend to evaluate sales lifts or dips as a function of four main factors:discount depth (e.g., how much was the discount on the CPG item),discount duration (e.g., how long did the promotion campaign last),timing (e.g., whether there was any special holidays or event or weatherinvolved), and promotion type when analyzing for promotions (e.g.,whether the promotion was a price discount only, whether Brand X cookieswere displayed/not displayed prominently, whether Brand X cookies werefeatures/not featured in the promotion literature).

However, there may exist other factors that contribute to the sales liftor dip, and such factors are often not discoverable by examining, in abackward-looking manner, the historical aggregate sales volume data forBrand X cookies. This is because there is not enough information in theaggregate sales volume data to enable the extraction of informationpertaining to unanticipated or seemingly unrelated events that may havehappened during the sales lifts and dips and may have actuallycontributed to the sales lifts and dips.

Suppose, for example, that there was a discount promotion for Brand Xcookies during the time when lift 110 in the demand curve 102 happens.However, during the same time, there was a breakdown in the distributionchain of Brand Y cookies, a competitor's cookies brand which manyconsumers view to be an equivalent substitute for Brand X cookies. WithBrand Y cookies being in short supply in the store, many consumersbought Brand X instead for convenience sake. Aggregate historical salesvolume data for Brand X cookies, when examined after the fact inisolation by Brand X marketing department thousands of miles away, wouldnot uncover that fact. As a result, Brand X marketers may make themistaken assumption that the costly promotion effort of Brand X cookieswas solely responsible for the sales lift and should be continued,despite the fact that it was an unrelated event that contributed to mostof the lift in the sales volume of Brand X cookies.

As another example, suppose, for example, that milk produced by aparticular unrelated vendor was heavily promoted in the same grocerystore or in a different grocery store nearby during the week that BrandX cookies experienced the sales lift 110. The milk may have beenhighlighted in the weekly circular, placed in a highly visible locationin the store and/or a milk industry expert may have been present in thestore to push buyers to purchase milk, for example. Many consumers endedup buying milk because of this effort whereas some of most of thoseconsumers who bought during the milk promotion may have waited anotherweek or so until they finished consuming the milk they bought in theprevious weeks. Further, many of those milk-buying consumers during thisperiod also purchased cookies out of an ingrained milk-and-cookieshabit. Aggregate historical sales volume data for Brand X cookies wouldnot uncover that fact unless the person analyzing the historicalaggregate sales volume data for Brand X cookies happened to be presentin the store during that week and had the insight to note that milk washeavily promoted that week and also the insight that increased milkbuying may have an influence on the sales volume of Brand X cookies.

Software may try to take some of these unanticipated events into accountbut unless every SKU (stock keeping unit) in that store and in storeswithin commuting distance and all events, whether seemingly related orunrelated to the sales of Brand X cookies, are modeled, it is impossibleto eliminate data noise from the backward-looking analysis based onaggregate historical sales data.

Even without the presence of unanticipated factors, a marketing personworking for Brand X may be interested in knowing whether the relativelymodest sales lift 114 comes from purchases made by regular Brand Xcookies buyers or by new buyers being enticed by some aspect of thepromotion campaign to buy Brand X cookies for the first time. If Brand Xmarketer can ascertain that most of the lift in sales during thepromotion period that spans lift 114 comes from new consumers of Brand Xcookies, such marketer may be willing to spend more money on the sametype of sales promotion, even to the point of tolerating a negative ROI(return on investment) on his promotion dollars for this particular typeof promotion since the recruitment of new buyers to a brand is deemedmore much valuable to the company in the long run than the temporaryincrease in sales to existing Brand X buyers. Again, aggregatehistorical sales volume data for Brand X cookies, when examined in abackward-looking manner, would not provide such information.

Furthermore, even if all unrelated and related events and factors can bemodeled, the fact that the approach is backward-looking means that thereis no way to validate the hypothesis about the effect an event has onthe sales volume since the event has already occurred in the past. Withrespect to the example involving the effect of milk promotion on Brand Xcookies sales, there is no way to test the theory short of duplicatingthe milk shortage problem again. Even if the milk shortage problem couldbe duplicated again for testing purposes, other conditions have changed,including the fact that most consumers who bought milk during thatperiod would not need to or be in a position to buy milk again in a longtime. Some factors, such as weather, cannot be duplicated, making theoryverification challenging.

Attempts have been made to employ non-aggregate sales data in promotingproducts. For example, some companies may employ a loyalty card program(such as the type commonly used in grocery stores or drug stores) tokeep track of purchases by individual consumers. If an individualconsumer has been buying sugar-free cereal, for example, themanufacturer of a new type of whole grain cereal may wish to offer adiscount to that particular consumer to entice that consumer to try outthe new whole grain cereal based on the theory that people who boughtsugar-free cereal tend to be more health conscious and thus more likelyto purchase whole grain cereal than the general cereal-consuming public.Such individualized discount may take the form of, for example, aredeemable discount such as a coupon or a discount code mailed oremailed to that individual.

Some companies may vary the approach by, for example, ascertaining theitems purchased by the consumer at the point of sale terminal andoffering a redeemable code on the purchase receipt. Irrespective of theapproach taken, the utilization of non-aggregate sales data hastypically resulted in individualized offers, and has not been processedor integrated in any meaningful sense into a promotion optimizationeffort to determine the most cost-efficient, highest-return manner topromote a particular CPG item to the general public.

Attempts have also been made to obtain from the consumers themselvesindications of future buying behavior instead of relying on abackward-looking approach. For example, conjoint studies, one of thestated preference methods, have been attempted in which consumers areasked to state preferences. In an example conjoint study, a consumer maybe approached at the store and asked a series of questions designed touncover the consumer's future shopping behavior when presented withdifferent promotions. Questions may be asked include, for example, “doyou prefer Brand X or Brand Y” or “do you spend less than $100 or morethan $100 weekly on grocery” or “do you prefer chocolate cookies oroatmeal cookies” or “do you prefer a 50-cent-off coupon or a 2-for-1deal on cookies”. The consumer may state his preference on each of thequestions posed (thus making this study a conjoint study on statedpreference).

However, such conjoint studies have proven to be an expensive way toobtain non-historical data. If the conjoint studies are presented via acomputer, most users may ignore the questions and/or refuse toparticipate. If human field personnel are employed to talk to individualconsumers to conduct the conjoint study, the cost of such studies tendsto be quite high due to salary cost of the human field personnel and maymake the extensive use of such conjoint studies impractical.

Further and more importantly, it has been known that conjoint studiesare somewhat unreliable in gauging actual purchasing behavior byconsumers in the future. An individual may state out of guilt and theknowledge that he needs to lose weight that he will not purchase anycookies in the next six months, irrespective of discounts. In actuality,that individual may pick up a package of cookies every week if suchpackage is carried in a certain small size that is less guilt-inducingand/or if the package of cookies is prominently displayed next to themilk refrigerator and/or if a 10% off discount coupon is available. If apromotion effort is based on such flawed stated preference data,discounts may be inefficiently deployed in the future, costing themanufacturer more money than necessary for the promotion.

Finally, none of the approaches track the long-term impact of apromotion's effect on brand equity for an individual's buying behaviorover time. Some promotions, even if deemed a success by traditionalshort-term measures, could have damaging long-term consequences.Increased price-based discounting, for example, can lead to consumersincreasing the weight of price in determining their purchase decisions,making consumers more deal-prone and reluctant to buy at full price,leading to less loyalty to brands and retail outlets.

In addition to all of the issues intrinsic to effective promotionaldesign and testing, there is also a significant cost associated with thenegotiation of a promotion between a given producer and the retailer.Product manufacturers have goals to increase market share of theirgoods, increase sales volumes or improve profits. To this end,manufacturers will often generate pricing incentives to the retailersfor their goods, in hopes to drive additional sales. This may becompleted, most commonly, through personalized mailers or loyalty cardoffers.

In personalized mailers the manufacturer may simply institute amanufacturer's coupon that may be redeemed at the retailer by theconsumer. The retailer then physically mails these coupons to themanufacturer for reimbursement. Such manufacturer incentives are oftenplagued by counterfeit coupons, and places the entire cost reductionburden upon the manufacturer. Since the manufacturer must absorb allthis cost, and due to the fact that the manufacturer is lower on thesupply chain (and thus subject to generally lower margins) thesemanufacturer rebates are generally small in value, and lack significanteffectiveness.

A much more impactful manner of promoting the products with personalizedmailers is through a joint promotional activity between the retailer andmanufacturer. In these situations, both the retailer and manufactureragree to promotion terms, and each bear some of the cost burdenassociated with the promotion. This allows much deeper discounts to beoffered to the consumer, which tends to be the more effective. However,these arrangements require coordination, negotiation and agreementbetween the retailer and the manufacturer.

Currently, for personalized mailers, an expensive third party consultantoperates on behalf of retailers to seek offers from productmanufacturers. These consultant third parties charge significant fees toidentify segments of goods and consumers, and plan a possible promotion.There is very little visibility by either the manufacturer or theretailer into this process generally. From this consulting, a limitednumber of promotions are then generated (usually less than 8‘personalized’ offers), and are generally delivered to the possibleconsumers using the postal service, or other slow delivery mechanism.

The usage of paper promotions that are delivered to a rather granularsegment of consumers is generally subject to fraud risk due to fakecoupon barcodes. Analytics resulting from the personalized promotion arecollected by the consultant, and again remain opaque to the manufacturerand retailer. These current personalized mailers are slow, relativelyineffective, costly and non-transparent.

The usage of loyalty card promotions reduces the risks associated withfraudulent activity and the slow delivery issue. In loyalty cardpromotions the retailer charges the manufacturer for the placement of apromotion on their products. The retailer sets the terms of thepromotion, and does in an ad hoc manner. Although significant data ifavailable in the form of transaction logs, the retailers are generallyoverwhelmed by data, and the promotion design is suboptimal,particularly for the manufacturer.

The resulting promotions are published by the retailer specific loyaltycard platform, and typically includes delays and fees before the offeris communicated to the consumer base. On the consumer side, manyconsumers do not enjoy using a personalized application, and less than20% of consumers use a loyalty card application. Thus, the reach ofthese offers is significantly reduced compared to mailers. Backendanalytics for the promotions are available to the retailer, but stillremains opaque to the manufacturer.

On the redemption side of these offers, the usage of a loyalty cardsystem locks a user into the specific retailer's application platform.Since consumers generally shop at a wide variety of retailers, theconsumer must download and manage a number of these applications,leading, in part, to the low usage rates of these applications.

Previous disclosures by the applicants have focused upon the ability togenerate and administer a plurality of test promotions across consumersegments in a rapid manner in order to overcome the foregoing issues ina manner that results in cost-effective, high-return, and timelypromotions to the general public. They provide a very powerful tool indetermining the most effective promotional values, but do notspecifically address the promotion generation process between theretailer and manufacturer, nor the redemption of said promotions.

It is therefore apparent that an urgent need exists for systems andmethods that enable improvements in the generation of promotion offersbetween the retailers and manufacturers, as well as mechanisms toimprove redemption of said promotions.

SUMMARY

To achieve the foregoing and in accordance with the present invention,systems and methods for a collaborative offer portal is provided. Insome embodiments, a proposed offer is received from a manufacturer,including an offer structure and a number of consumers they wish totarget. Transaction logs of a retailer are accessed to determine anaudience for the offer by calculating a return on investment (ROI) forthe customer base using the retailer's records given the offer type.

The consumers are then grouped by their ROI distribution, and the ROIfor the deal is calculated based upon the offer size in light of thisdistribution. From the offer ROI a discount percentage to be paid by theretailer versus the merchant can be created. The retailer may thenchoose to accept the offer for deployment.

Manufacturer costs can be calculated based upon the offer structure,number of consumers to target, and the discount percentage. Also,predicted redemption rate for the offer, predicted sales responsive tothe predicted redemption rate, predicted incremental sales, and grossmargin estimates may all be calculated.

The ROI value for a product is calculated using product headroom,product importance and shopper headroom calculated using weightsreceived from the retailer and transaction log data. The discountpercentage is linearly correlated to the average ROI value.

In some cases the system can optimize the offer structure by maintainingthe product, and proposing variable values for the offer that have beenpreviously tested and determined to be winning values. The discountvariable value is constrained such that the value deviates less than 10%from a value of the proposed offer. It is also possible to optimizespend for the offer by determining an optimal number of consumers totarget by maximizing the consumer numbers subject to a maximum budgetvalue and minimum average ROI value.

Note that the various features of the present invention described abovemay be practiced alone or in combination. These and other features ofthe present invention will be described in more detail below in thedetailed description of the invention and in conjunction with thefollowing figures.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

In order that the present invention may be more clearly ascertained,some embodiments will now be described, by way of example, withreference to the accompanying drawings, in which:

FIG. 1 shows an example demand curve 102 for Brand X cookies over someperiod of time.

FIG. 2A shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention, aconceptual drawing of the forward-looking promotion optimization method.

FIG. 2B shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention, thesteps for generating a general public promotion.

FIG. 3A shows in greater detail, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention, the administering step 206 of FIG. 2 from the user'sperspective.

FIG. 3B shows in greater detail, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention, the administering step 206 of FIG. 2 from the forward-lookingpromotion optimization system perspective.

FIG. 4 shows various example segmentation criteria that may be employedto generate the purposefully segmented subpopulations.

FIG. 5 shows various example methods for communicating the testpromotions to individuals of the segmented subpopulations being tested.

FIG. 6 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, various examplepromotion-significant responses.

FIG. 7 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, various example testpromotion variables affecting various aspects of a typical testpromotion.

FIG. 8 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, a generalhardware/network view of a forward-looking promotion optimizationsystem.

FIG. 9 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, a block diagram of anoffer collaboration architecture.

FIG. 10 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, an exampleillustration of an offer system.

FIG. 11 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, a flowchart of anexample method for the administration of an offer.

FIG. 12 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, a flowchart of anexample method for the offer generation.

FIG. 13 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, a flowchart of anexample method for the determination of a return on investmentdistribution.

FIG. 14 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, a flowchart of anexample method for the determination of a percentage split of expectedoffer payment between a retailer and a manufacturer.

FIG. 15 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, a flowchart of anexample method for the determination of discount percentages.

FIG. 16 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, an examplescreenshot of an example offer.

FIG. 17 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, an example of thecalculation of a return on investment distribution.

FIG. 18 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, an examplescreenshot of an offer analytics dashboard.

FIGS. 19A and 19B show, in accordance with some embodiments, diagrams ofhow the discount percentage is calculated.

FIG. 20 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, an example blockdiagram of an offer redemption architecture.

FIG. 21 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, an example blockdiagram of a democratized offer redeemer.

FIG. 22 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, an illustration ofcommunication between the entities involved in an offer redemption.

FIG. 23 shows, in accordance with some embodiments, a flowchart of anexample method for offer redemption.

FIGS. 24A and 24B are example computer systems capable of implementingthe systems for offer generation and redemption.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

The present invention will now be described in detail with reference toseveral embodiments thereof as illustrated in the accompanying drawings.In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth inorder to provide a thorough understanding of embodiments of the presentinvention. It will be apparent, however, to one skilled in the art, thatembodiments may be practiced without some or all of these specificdetails. In other instances, well known process steps and/or structureshave not been described in detail in order to not unnecessarily obscurethe present invention. The features and advantages of embodiments may bebetter understood with reference to the drawings and discussions thatfollow.

Aspects, features and advantages of exemplary embodiments of the presentinvention will become better understood with regard to the followingdescription in connection with the accompanying drawing(s). It should beapparent to those skilled in the art that the described embodiments ofthe present invention provided herein are illustrative only and notlimiting, having been presented by way of example only. All featuresdisclosed in this description may be replaced by alternative featuresserving the same or similar purpose, unless expressly stated otherwise.Therefore, numerous other embodiments of the modifications thereof arecontemplated as falling within the scope of the present invention asdefined herein and equivalents thereto. Hence, use of absolute and/orsequential terms, such as, for example, “will,” “will not,” “shall,”“shall not,” “must,” “must not,” “first,” “initially,” “next,”“subsequently,” “before,” “after,” “lastly,” and “finally,” are notmeant to limit the scope of the present invention as the embodimentsdisclosed herein are merely exemplary.

The present invention relates to the generation of promotions between amanufacturer and one or more retailers. In this application the term“manufacturer” may include the actual producer of a good, or couldinclude resellers or intermediate branding entities. The term “retailer”refers to a business entity that is offering the good or service toconsumers directly, or less commonly to yet another downstream businessentity. Examples of manufacturers could include, for example, a sodabottling plant, a consumer package good (CPG) producer, or a wholesaleretailer. Examples of retailers, in contrast include main-street stores,such as Target, Safeway, Walmart and the like.

Historically, third party consultants are used to generate personalizedmailers when a joint manufacturer/retailer promotion was undertaken.This has been further augmented through the usage of loyalty cardapplications which also allow specific promotions to be delivered tospecific consumers. Such systems and methods are costly, ineffective,and opaque to manufacturers. The presently disclosed systems and methodsallows for a far more efficient and transparent mechanism for thegeneration, delivery and redemption of personalized promotional offers.Such systems and methods may be coupled to the disclosed methodologiesfor promotional testing to further improve the effectiveness of suchoffers.

The following description of some embodiments will be provided inrelation to numerous subsections. The use of subsections, with headings,is intended to provide greater clarity and structure to the presentinvention. In no way are the subsections intended to limit or constrainthe disclosure contained therein. Thus, disclosures in any one sectionare intended to apply to all other sections, as is applicable.

I. Forward Looking Promotion Optimization

Within the forward-looking promotion optimization, revealed preferencesare obtained when the individual consumers respond to specificallydesigned actual test promotions. The revealed preferences may be trackedin individual computer-implemented accounts (which may, for example, beimplemented via a record in a centralized database and renderedaccessible to the merchant or the consumer via a computer network suchas the internet) associated with individual consumers, or may becollected at a physical retailer based upon transaction records. Forexample, when a consumer responds, using his smart phone, web browser,or in a physical store through completion of a transaction, to a testpromotion that offers 20% off a particular consumer packaged goods (CPG)item, that response is tracked in his individual computer-implementedaccount, or in a transaction record. Such computer-implemented accountsmay be implemented via, for example, a loyalty card program, apps on asmart phone, computerized records, social media news feed, etc.

In one or more embodiments, a plurality of test promotions may bedesigned and tested on a plurality of groups of consumers (the groups ofconsumers are referred to herein as “subpopulations”). The responses bythe consumers are recorded and analyzed, with the analysis resultemployed to generate additional test promotions or to formulate thegeneral population promotion. In the event of physical testing in aretailer space, it may be possible to segment the consumer base using avariety of collected demographic and activity data. This may include aloyalty care program, pharmacy ID, and information collected from publicdata sources. Such information may be correlated to credit card (ordebit card, electronic wallet, etc.) information, and stored as aprofile for the individual consumer and aggregated into consumerhouseholds. Information about the consumer, or the household, such aspurchasing behaviors, income levels, ethnicity, age(s), number ofpersons in the household, gender, political affiliations, geography,medical conditions, etc., may be used to categorize the consumers intolike subpopulations using neural network techniques and known clusteringalgorithms.

As will be discussed later herein, if the consumer actually redeems theoffer, one type of response is recorded and noted in thecomputer-implemented account of that consumer. Even if an action by theconsumer does not involve actually redeeming or actually takingadvantage of the promotional offer right away, an action by thatconsumer may, however, constitute a response that indicates a level ofinterest or lack of interest and may still be useful in revealing theconsumer preference (or lack thereof). For example, if a consumer savesan electronic coupon (offered as part of a test promotion) in hiselectronic coupon folder or forwards that coupon to a friend via anemail or a social website, that action may indicate a certain level ofinterest and may be useful in determining the effectiveness of a giventest promotion. In the physical retailer space, if a consumer stops tolook at a product, or even pick up the product but chooses not topurchase it at the register, such activity, to the extent it is reliablymeasured, may indicate interest in the promotion despite the lack of atransaction being completed. Different types of responses/actions by theconsumers may be accorded different weights, in one or more embodiments.

As noted, the groups of consumers involved in promotion testingrepresent segments of the public that have been purposefully segmentedin accordance with segmenting criteria specifically designed for thepurpose of testing the test promotions. As the term is employed herein,a subpopulation is deemed purposefully segmented when its members areselected based on criteria other than merely to make up a given numberof members in the subpopulation. Demographics, buying behavior,behavioral economics, geography (e.g., purchasing at a certain brick andmortar retailer) are example criteria that may be employed topurposefully segment a population into subpopulations for promotiontesting. In an example, a segmented population may number in the tens orhundreds or even thousands of individuals. In contrast, the generalpublic may involve tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millionsof potential customers.

By purposefully segmenting the public into small subpopulations forpromotion testing, embodiments of the invention can exert control overvariables such as demographics (e.g., age, income, sex, marriage status,address, etc.), buying behavior (e.g., regular purchaser of Brand Xcookies, consumer of premium food, frequent traveler, etc), weather,shopping habits, life style, and/or any other criteria suitable for usein creating the subpopulations. More importantly, the subpopulations arekept small such that multiple test promotions may be executed ondifferent subpopulations, either simultaneously or at different times,without undue cost or delay in order to obtain data pertaining to thetest promotion response behavior. The low cost/low delay aspect ofcreating and executing test promotions on purposefully segmentedsubpopulations permits, for example, what-if testing, testing instatistically significant numbers of tests, and/or iterative testing toisolate winning features in test promotions.

Generally speaking, each individual test promotion may be designed totest one or more test promotion variables. These test promotionsvariables may relate to, for example, the size, shape, color, manner ofdisplay, manner of discount, manner of publicizing, manner ofdissemination pertaining to the goods/services being promoted.

As a very simple example, one test promotion may involve 12-oz packagesof fancy-cut potato chips with medium salt and a discount of 30% off theregular price. This test promotion may be tested on a purposefullysegmented subpopulation of 35-40 years old professionals in the$30,000-$50,000 annual income range. Another test promotion may involvethe same 30% discount 12-oz packages of fancy-cut potato chips withmedium salt on a different purposefully segmented subpopulation of 35-40years old professionals in the higher $100,000-$150,000 annual incomerange. By controlling all variables except for income range, theresponses of these two test promotions, if repeated in statisticallysignificant numbers, would likely yield fairly accurate informationregarding the relationship between income for 35-40 years oldprofessionals and their actual preference for 12-oz packages of fancycut potato chips with medium salt.

In designing different test promotions, one or more of the testpromotions variables may vary or one or more of the segmenting criteriaemployed to create the purposefully segmented subpopulations may vary.The test promotion responses from individuals in the subpopulations arethen collected and analyzed to ascertain which test promotion or testpromotion variable(s) yields/yield the most desirable response (based onsome predefined success criteria, for example).

Further, the test promotions can also reveal insights regarding whichsubpopulation performs the best, or well, with respect to test promotionresponses. In this manner, test promotion response analysis providesinsights not only regarding the relative performance of the testpromotion and/or test promotion variable but also insights regardingpopulation segmentation and/or segmentation criteria. In an embodiment,it is contemplated that the segments may be arbitrarily or randomlysegmented into groups and test promotions may be executed against thesearbitrarily segmented groups in order to obtain insights regardingpersonal characteristics that respond well to a particular type ofpromotion.

In an embodiment, the identified test promotion variable(s) that yieldthe most desirable responses may then be employed to formulate a generalpublic promotion (GPP), which may then be offered to the larger public.A general public promotion is different from a test promotion in that ageneral public promotion is a promotion designed to be offered tomembers of the public to increase or maximize sales or profit whereas atest promotion is designed to be targeted to a small group ofindividuals fitting a specific segmentation criteria for the purpose ofpromotion testing. Examples of general public promotions include (butnot limited to) advertisement printed in newspapers, release in publicforums and websites, flyers for general distribution, announcement onradios or television, promotion broadly transmitted or made available tomembers of the public, and/or promotions that are rolled out to a widerset of physical retailer locations. The general public promotion maytake the form of a paper or electronic circular that offers the samepromotion to the larger public, for example.

Alternatively or additionally, promotion testing may be iterated overand over with different subpopulations (segmented using the same ordifferent segmenting criteria) and different test promotions (devisedusing the same or different combinations of test promotion variables) inorder to validate one or more the test promotion response analysisresult(s) prior to the formation of the generalized public promotion. Inthis manner, “false positives” may be reduced.

Since a test promotion may involve many test promotion variables,iterative test promotion testing, as mentioned, may help pin-point avariable (e.g., promotion feature) that yields the most desirable testpromotion response to a particular subpopulation or to the generalpublic.

Suppose, for example, that a manufacturer wishes to find out the mosteffective test promotion for packaged potato chips. One test promotionmay reveal that consumers tend to buy a greater quantity of potato chipswhen packaged in brown paper bags versus green paper bags. That“winning” test promotion variable value (e.g., brown paper bagpackaging) may be retested in another set of test promotions usingdifferent combinations of test promotion variables (such as for examplewith different prices, different display options, etc.) on the same ordifferent purposefully segmented subpopulations. The follow-up testpromotions may be iterated multiple times in different test promotionvariable combinations and/or with different test subpopulations tovalidate that there is, for example, a significant consumer preferencefor brown paper bag packaging over other types of packaging for potatochips.

Further, individual “winning” test promotion variable values fromdifferent test promotions may be combined to enhance the efficacy of thegeneral public promotion to be created. For example, if a 2-for-1discount is found to be another winning variable value (e.g., consumerstend to buy a greater quantity of potato chips when offered a 2-for-1discount), that winning test promotion variable value (e.g., theaforementioned 2-for-1 discount) of the winning test promotion variable(e.g., discount depth) may be combined with the brown paper packagingwinning variable value to yield a promotion that involves discounting2-for-1 potato chips in brown paper bag packaging.

The promotion involving discounting 2-for-1 potato chips in brown paperbag packaging may be tested further to validate the hypothesis that sucha combination elicits a more desirable response than the response fromtest promotions using only brown paper bag packaging or from testpromotions using only 2-for-1 discounts. As many of the “winning” testpromotion variable values may be identified and combined in a singlepromotion as desired. At some point, a combination of “winning” testpromotion variables (involving one, two, three, or more “winning” testpromotion variables) may be employed to create the general publicpromotion, in one or more embodiments.

In one or more embodiments, test promotions may be executed iterativelyand/or in a continual fashion on different purposefully segmentedsubpopulations using different combinations of test promotion variablesto continue to obtain insights into consumer actual revealedpreferences, even as those preferences change over time. Note that theconsumer responses that are obtained from the test promotions are actualrevealed preferences instead of stated preferences. In other words, thedata obtained from the test promotions administered in accordance withembodiments of the invention pertains to what individual consumersactually do when presented with the actual promotions. The data istracked and available for analysis and/or verification in individualcomputer-implemented accounts of individual consumers involved in thetest promotions. This revealed preference approach is opposed to astated preference approach, which stated preference data is obtainedwhen the consumer states what he would hypothetically do in response to,for example, a hypothetically posed conjoint test question.

As such, the actual preference test promotion response data obtained inaccordance with embodiments of the present invention is a more reliableindicator of what a general population member may be expected to behavewhen presented with the same or a similar promotion in a general publicpromotion. Accordingly, there is a closer relationship between the testpromotion response behavior (obtained in response to the testpromotions) and the general public response behavior when a generalpublic promotion is generated based on such test promotion responsedata.

Also, the lower face validity of a stated preference test, even if theinsights have statistical relevance, poses a practical challenge; CPGmanufacturers who conduct such tests have to then communicate theinsights to a retailer in order to drive real-world behavior, andconvincing retailers of the validity of these tests after the fact canlead to lower credibility and lower adoption, or “signal loss” as thetop concepts from these tests get re-interpreted by a third party, theretailer, who wasn't involved in the original test design.

It should be pointed out that embodiments of the inventive testpromotion optimization methods and apparatuses disclosed herein operateon a forward-looking basis in that the plurality of test promotions aregenerated and tested on segmented subpopulations in advance of theformulation of a general public promotion. In other words, the analysisresults from executing the plurality of test promotions on differentpurposefully segmented subpopulations are employed to generate futuregeneral public promotions. In this manner, data regarding the “expected”efficacy of the proposed general public promotion is obtained evenbefore the proposed general public promotion is released to the public.This is one key driver in obtaining highly effective general publicpromotions at low cost.

Furthermore, the subpopulations can be generated with highly granularsegmenting criteria, allowing for control of data noise that may arisedue to a number of factors, some of which may be out of the control ofthe manufacturer or the merchant. This is in contrast to the aggregateddata approach of the prior art.

For example, if two different test promotions are executed on twosubpopulations shopping at the same merchant on the same date,variations in the response behavior due to time of day or trafficcondition are essentially eliminated or substantially minimized in theresults (since the time or day or traffic condition would affect the twosubpopulations being tested in substantially the same way).

The test promotions themselves may be formulated to isolate specifictest promotion variables (such as the aforementioned potato chip brownpaper packaging or the 16-oz size packaging). This is also in contrastto the aggregated data approach of the prior art.

Accordingly, individual winning promotion variables may be isolated andcombined to result in a more effective promotion campaign in one or moreembodiments. Further, the test promotion response data may be analyzedto answer questions related to specific subpopulation attribute(s) orspecific test promotion variable(s). With embodiments of the invention,it is now possible to answer, from the test subpopulation response data,questions such as “How deep of a discount is required to increase by 10%the volume of potato chip purchased by buyers who are 18-25 year-oldmale shopping on a Monday?” or to generate test promotions specificallydesigned to answer such a question. Such data granularity and analysisresult would have been impossible to achieve using the backward-looking,aggregate historical data approach of the prior art.

In one or more embodiments, there is provided a promotional idea modulefor generating ideas for promotional concepts to test. The promotionalidea generation module relies on a series of pre-constructed sentencestructures that outline typical promotional constructs. For example, BuyX, get Y for $Z price would be one sentence structure, whereas Get Y for$Z when you buy X would be a second. It's important to differentiatethat the consumer call to action in those two examples is materiallydifferent, and one cannot assume the promotional response will be thesame when using one sentence structure vs. another. The solution isflexible and dynamic, so once X, Y, and Z are identified, multiple validsentence structures can be tested. Additionally, other variables in thesentence could be changed, such as replacing “buy” with “hurry up andbuy” or “act now” or “rush to your local store to find”. The solutiondelivers a platform where multiple products, offers, and different waysof articulating such offers can be easily generated by a lay user. Theamount of combinations to test can be infinite. Further, the generationmay be automated, saving time and effort in generating promotionalconcepts. In following sections one mechanism, the design matrix, forthe automation of promotional generation will be provided in greaterdetail.

In one or more embodiments, once a set of concepts is developed, thetechnology advantageously a) will constrain offers to only test “viablepromotions”, e.g., those that don't violate local laws, conflict withbranding guidelines, lead to unprofitable concepts that wouldn't bepractically relevant, can be executed on a retailers' system, etc.,and/or b) link to the design of experiments for micro-testing todetermine which combinations of variables to test at any given time.

In one or more embodiments, there is provided an offer selection modulefor enabling a non-technical audience to select viable offers for thepurpose of planning traditional promotions (such as general populationpromotion, for example) outside the test environment. By using filtersand advanced consumer-quality graphics, the offer selection module willbe constrained to only show top performing concepts from the tests, withproduction-ready artwork wherever possible. By doing so, the offerselection module renders irrelevant the traditional, Excel-based orheavily numbers-oriented performance reports from traditional analytictools. The user can have “freedom within a framework” by selecting anyof the pre-scanned promotions for inclusion in an offer to the generalpublic, but value is delivered to the retailer or manufacturer becausethe offers are constrained to only include the best performing concepts.Deviation from the top concepts can be accomplished, but only once thespecific changes are run through the testing process and emerge in theoffer selection windows.

In an embodiment, it is expressly contemplated that the generalpopulation and/or subpopulations may be chosen from social media site(e.g., Facebook™, Twitter™, Google+™, etc.) participants. Social mediaoffers a large population of active participants and often providevarious communication tools (e.g., email, chat, conversation streams,running posts, etc.) which makes it efficient to offer promotions and toreceive responses to the promotions. Various tools and data sourcesexist to uncover characteristics of social media site members, whichcharacteristics (e.g., age, sex, preferences, attitude about aparticular topic, etc.) may be employed as highly granular segmentationcriteria, thereby simplifying segmentation planning.

Although grocery stores and other brick-and-mortar businesses arediscussed in various examples herein, it is expressly contemplated thatembodiments of the invention apply also to online shopping and onlineadvertising/promotion and online members/customers.

These and other features and advantages of embodiments of the inventionmay be better understood with reference to the figures and discussionsthat follow.

FIG. 2A shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention, aconceptual drawing of the forward-looking promotion optimization method.As shown in FIG. 2A, a plurality of test promotions 102 a, 102 b, 102 c,102 d, and 102 e are administered to purposefully segmentedsubpopulations 104 a, 104 b, 104 c, 104 d, and 104 e respectively. Asmentioned, each of the test promotions (102 a-102 e) may be designed totest one or more test promotion variables.

In the example of FIG. 2A, test promotions 102 a-102 d are shown testingthree test promotion variables X, Y, and Z, which may represent forexample the size of the packaging (e.g., 12 oz. versus 16 oz.), themanner of display (e.g., at the end of the aisle versus on the shelf),and the discount (e.g., 10% off versus 2-for-1). These promotionvariables are of course only illustrative and almost any variableinvolved in producing, packaging, displaying, promoting, discounting,etc. of the packaged product may be deemed a test promotion variable ifthere is an interest in determining how the consumer would respond tovariations of one or more of the test promotion variables. Further,although only a few test promotion variables are shown in the example ofFIG. 2A, a test promotion may involve as many or as few of the testpromotion variables as desired. For example, test promotion 102 e isshown testing four test promotion variables (X, Y, Z, and T).

One or more of the test promotion variables may vary from test promotionto test promotion. In the example of FIG. 2A, test promotion 102 ainvolves test variable X1 (representing a given value or attribute fortest variable X) while test promotion 102 b involves test variable X2(representing a different value or attribute for test variable X). Atest promotion may vary, relative to another test promotion, one testpromotion variable (as can be seen in the comparison between testpromotions 102 a and 102 b) or many of the test promotion variables (ascan be seen in the comparison between test promotions 102 a and 102 d).Also, there are no requirements that all test promotions must have thesame number of test promotion variables (as can be seen in thecomparison between test promotions 102 a and 102 e) although for thepurpose of validating the effect of a single variable, it may be usefulto keep the number and values of other variables (e.g., the controlvariables) relatively constant from test to test (as can be seen in thecomparison between test promotions 102 a and 102 b).

Generally speaking, the test promotions may be generated using automatedtest promotion generation software 110, which varies for example thetest promotion variables and/or the values of the test promotionvariables and/or the number of the test promotion variables to come upwith different test promotions.

In the example of FIG. 2A, purposefully segmented subpopulations 104a-104 d are shown segmented using four segmentation criteria A, B, C, D,which may represent for example the age of the consumer, the householdincome, the zip code, group of consumers shopping at a particularphysical retailer, and whether the person is known from past purchasingbehavior to be a luxury item buyer or a value item buyer. Thesesegmentation criteria are of course only illustrative and almost anydemographics, behavioral, attitudinal, whether self-described,objective, interpolated from data sources (including past purchase orcurrent purchase data), etc. may be used as segmentation criteria ifthere is an interest in determining how a particular subpopulation wouldlikely respond to a test promotion. Further, although only a fewsegmentation criteria are shown in connection with subpopulations 104a-104 d in the example of FIG. 2A, segmentation may involve as many oras few of the segmentation criteria as desired. For example,purposefully segmented subpopulation 104 e is shown segmented using fivesegmentation criteria (A, B, C, D, and E).

In the present disclosure, a distinction is made between a purposefullysegmented subpopulation and a randomly segmented subpopulation. Theformer denotes a conscious effort to group individuals based on one ormore segmentation criteria or attributes. The latter denotes a randomgrouping for the purpose of forming a group irrespective of theattributes of the individuals. Randomly segmented subpopulations areuseful in some cases; however they are distinguishable from purposefullysegmented subpopulations when the differences are called out.

One or more of the segmentation criteria may vary from purposefullysegmented subpopulation to purposefully segmented subpopulation. In theexample of FIG. 2A, purposefully segmented subpopulation 104 a involvessegmentation criterion value A1 (representing a given attribute or rangeof attributes for segmentation criterion A) while purposefully segmentedsubpopulation 104 c involves segmentation criterion value A2(representing a different attribute or set of attributes for the samesegmentation criterion A).

As can be seen, different purposefully segmented subpopulation may havedifferent numbers of individuals. As an example, purposefully segmentedsubpopulation 104 a has four individuals (P1-P4) whereas purposefullysegmented subpopulation 104 e has six individuals (P17-P22). Apurposefully segmented subpopulation may differ from anotherpurposefully segmented subpopulation in the value of a singlesegmentation criterion (as can be seen in the comparison betweenpurposefully segmented subpopulation 104 a and purposefully segmentedsubpopulation 104 c wherein the attribute A changes from A1 to A2) or inthe values of many segmentation criteria simultaneously (as can be seenin the comparison between purposefully segmented subpopulation 104 a andpurposefully segmented subpopulation 104 d wherein the values forattributes A, B, C, and D are all different). Two purposefully segmentedsubpopulations may also be segmented identically (e.g., using the samesegmentation criteria and the same values for those criteria) as can beseen in the comparison between purposefully segmented subpopulation 104a and purposefully segmented subpopulation 104 b.

Also, there are no requirements that all purposefully segmentedsubpopulations must be segmented using the same number of segmentationcriteria (as can be seen in the comparison between purposefullysegmented subpopulation 104 a and 104 e wherein purposefully segmentedsubpopulation 104 e is segmented using five criteria and purposefullysegmented subpopulation 104 a is segmented using only four criteria)although for the purpose of validating the effect of a single criterion,it may be useful to keep the number and values of other segmentationcriteria (e.g., the control criteria) relatively constant frompurposefully segmented subpopulation to purposefully segmentedsubpopulation.

Generally speaking, the purposefully segmented subpopulations may begenerated using automated segmentation software 112, which varies forexample the segmentation criteria and/or the values of the segmentationcriteria and/or the number of the segmentation criteria to come up withdifferent purposefully segmented subpopulations.

In one or more embodiments, the test promotions are administered toindividual users in the purposefully segmented subpopulations in such away that the responses of the individual users in that purposefullysegmented subpopulation can be recorded for later analysis. As anexample, an electronic coupon may be presented in an individual user'scomputer-implemented account (e.g., shopping account or loyaltyaccount), or emailed or otherwise transmitted to the smart phone of theindividual. In an example, the user may be provided with an electroniccoupon on his smart phone that is redeemable at the merchant. In FIG.2A, this administering is represented by the lines that extend from testpromotion 102 a to each of individuals P1-P4 in purposefully segmentedsubpopulation 104 a. If the user (such as user P1) makes apromotion-significant response, the response is noted in database 130.

A promotion-significant response is defined as a response that isindicative of some level of interest or disinterest in the goods/servicebeing promoted. In the aforementioned example, if the user P1 redeemsthe electronic coupon at the store, the redemption is stronglyindicative of user P1's interest in the offered goods. However,responses falling short of actual redemption or actual purchase maystill be significant for promotion analysis purposes. For example, ifthe user saves the electronic coupon in his electronic coupon folder onhis smart phone, such action may be deemed to indicate a certain levelof interest in the promoted goods. As another example, if the userforwards the electronic coupon to his friend or to a social networksite, such forwarding may also be deemed to indicate another level ofinterest in the promoted goods. As another example, if the user quicklymoves the coupon to trash, this action may also indicate a level ofstrong disinterest in the promoted goods. In one or more embodiments,weights may be accorded to various user responses to reflect the levelof interest/disinterest associated with the user's responses to a testpromotion. For example, actual redemption may be given a weight of 1,whereas saving to an electronic folder would be given a weight of only0.6 and whereas an immediate deletion of the electronic coupon would begiven a weight of −0.5.

Analysis engine 132 represents a software engine for analyzing theconsumer responses to the test promotions. Response analysis may employany analysis technique (including statistical analysis) that may revealthe type and degree of correlation between test promotion variables,subpopulation attributes, and promotion responses. Analysis engine 132may, for example, ascertain that a certain test promotion variable value(such as 2-for-1 discount) may be more effective than another testpromotion variable (such as 25% off) for 32-oz soft drinks if presentedas an electronic coupon right before Monday Night Football. Suchcorrelation may be employed to formulate a general population promotion(150) by a general promotion generator software (160). As can beappreciated from this discussion sequence, the optimization is aforward-looking optimization in that the results from test promotionsadministered in advance to purposefully segmented subpopulations areemployed to generate a general promotion to be released to the public ata later date.

In one or more embodiments, the correlations ascertained by analysisengine 132 may be employed to generate additional test promotions(arrows 172, 174, and 176) to administer to the same or a different setof purposefully segmented subpopulations. The iterative testing may beemployed to verify the consistency and/or strength of a correlation (byadministering the same test promotion to a different purposefullysegmented subpopulation or by combining the “winning” test promotionvalue with other test promotion variables and administering there-formulated test promotion to the same or a different set ofpurposefully segmented subpopulations).

In one or more embodiments, a “winning” test promotion value (e.g., 20%off listed price) from one test promotion may be combined with another“winning” test promotion value (e.g., packaged in plain brown paperbags) from another test promotion to generate yet another testpromotion. The test promotion that is formed from multiple “winning”test promotion values may be administered to different purposefullysegmented subpopulations to ascertain if such combination would eliciteven more desirable responses from the test subjects.

Since the purposefully segmented subpopulations are small and may besegmented with highly granular segmentation criteria, a large number oftest promotions may be generated (also with highly granular testpromotion variables) and a large number of combinations of testpromotions/purposefully segmented subpopulations can be executed quicklyand at a relatively low cost. The same number of promotions offered asgeneral public promotions would have been prohibitively expensive toimplement, and the large number of failed public promotions would havebeen costly for the manufacturers/retailers. In contrast, if a testpromotion fails, the fact that the test promotion was offered to only asmall number of consumers in one or more segmented subpopulations, or alimited number of physical locations for a limited time, would limit thecost of failure. Thus, even if a large number of these test promotions“fail” to elicit the desired responses, the cost of conducting thesesmall test promotions would still be quite small.

In an embodiment, it is envisioned that dozens, hundreds, or eventhousands of these test promotions may be administered concurrently orstaggered in time to the dozens, hundreds or thousands of segmentedsubpopulations. Further, the large number of test promotions executed(or iteratively executed) improves the statistical validity of thecorrelations ascertained by analysis engine. This is because the numberof variations in test promotion variable values, subpopulationattributes, etc. can be large, thus yielding rich and granulated resultdata. The data-rich results enable the analysis engine to generatehighly granular correlations between test promotion variables,subpopulation attributes, and type/degree of responses, as well as trackchanges over time. In turn, these more accurate/granular correlationshelp improve the probability that a general public promotion createdfrom these correlations would likely elicit the desired response fromthe general public. It would also, over, time, create promotionalprofiles for specific categories, brands, retailers, and individualshoppers where, e.g., shopper 1 prefers contests and shopper 2 prefersinstant financial savings.

FIG. 2B shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention, thesteps for generating a general public promotion. In one or moreembodiments, each, some, or all the steps of FIG. 2B may be automatedvia software to automate the forward-looking promotion optimizationprocess. In step 202, the plurality of test promotions are generated.These test promotions have been discussed in connection with testpromotions 102 a-102 e of FIG. 2A and represent the plurality of actualpromotions administered to small purposefully segmented subpopulationsto allow the analysis engine to uncover highly accurate/granularcorrelations between test promotion variables, subpopulation attributes,and type/degree of responses in an embodiment, these test promotions maybe generated using automated test promotion generation software thatvaries one or more of the test promotion variables, either randomly,according to heuristics, and/or responsive to hypotheses regardingcorrelations from analysis engine 132 for example.

In step 204, the segmented subpopulations are generated. In anembodiment, the segmented subpopulations represent randomly segmentedsubpopulations. In another embodiment, the segmented subpopulationsrepresent purposefully segmented subpopulations. In another embodiment,the segmented subpopulations may represent a combination of randomlysegmented subpopulations and purposefully segmented subpopulations. Inan embodiment, these segmented subpopulations may be generated usingautomated subpopulation segmentation software that varies one or more ofthe segmentation criteria, either randomly, according to heuristics,and/or responsive to hypotheses regarding correlations from analysisengine 132, for example.

In step 206, the plurality of test promotions generated in step 202 areadministered to the plurality of segmented subpopulations generated instep 204. In an embodiment, the test promotions are administered toindividuals within the segmented subpopulation and the individualresponses are obtained and recorded in a database (step 208).

In an embodiment, automated test promotion software automaticallyadministers the test promotions to the segmented subpopulations usingelectronic contact data that may be obtained in advance from, forexample, social media sites, a loyalty card program, previous contactwith individual consumers, or potential consumer data purchased from athird party, etc. In some alternate embodiments, as will be discussed ingreater detail below, the test promotions may be administered viaelectronic pricing tags displayed within a physical retail location.Such physical test promotions may be constricted by deployment time dueto logistic considerations. The responses may be obtained at the pointof sale terminal, or via a website or program, via social media, or viaan app implemented on smart phones used by the individuals, for example.

In step 210, the responses are analyzed to uncover correlations betweentest promotion variables, subpopulation attributes, and type/degree ofresponses.

In step 212, the general public promotion is formulated from thecorrelation data, which is uncovered by the analysis engine from dataobtained via subpopulation test promotions. In an embodiment, thegeneral public promotion may be generated automatically using publicpromotion generation software which utilizes at least the test promotionvariables and/or subpopulation segmentation criteria and/or test subjectresponses and/or the analysis provided by analysis engine 132.

In step 214, the general public promotion is released to the generalpublic to promote the goods/services.

In one or more embodiments, promotion testing using the test promotionson the segmented subpopulations occurs in parallel to the release of ageneral public promotion and may continue in a continual fashion tovalidate correlation hypotheses and/or to derive new general publicpromotions based on the same or different analysis results. If iterativepromotion testing involving correlation hypotheses uncovered by analysisengine 132 is desired, the same test promotions or new test promotionsmay be generated and executed against the same segmented subpopulationsor different segmented subpopulations as needed (paths 216/222/226 or216/224/226 or 216/222/224/226). As mentioned, iterative promotiontesting may validate the correlation hypotheses, serve to eliminate“false positives” and/or uncover combinations of test promotionvariables that may elicit even more favorable or different responsesfrom the test subjects.

Promotion testing may be performed on an on-going basis using the sameor different sets of test promotions on the same or different sets ofsegmented subpopulations as mentioned (paths 218/222/226 or 218/224/226or 218/222/224/226 or 220/222/226 or 220/224/226 or 220/222/224/226).

FIG. 3A shows in greater detail, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention, the administering step 206 of FIG. 2 from the user'sperspective. In step 302, the test promotion is received from the testpromotion generation server (which executes the software employed togenerate the test promotion). As examples, the test promotion may bereceived at a user's smart phone or tablet (such as in the case of anelectronic coupon or a discount code, along with the associatedpromotional information pertaining to the product, place of sale, timeof sale, etc.), in a computer-implemented account (such as a loyaltyprogram account) associated with the user that is a member of thesegmented subpopulation to be tested, via one or more social mediasites, or displayed on electronic pricing tags within a retailer'sphysical store. In step 304, the test promotion is presented to theuser. In step 306, the user's response to the test promotion is obtainedand transmitted to a database for analysis.

FIG. 3B shows in greater detail, in accordance with an embodiment of theinvention, the administering step 206 of FIG. 2 from the forward-lookingpromotion optimization system perspective. In step 312, the testpromotions are generated using the test promotion generation server(which executes the software employed to generate the test promotion).In step 314, the test promotions are provided to the users (e.g.,transmitted or emailed to the user's smart phone or tablet or computer,shared with the user using the user's loyalty account, displayed in thephysical retailer). In step 316, the system receives the user'sresponses and stores the user's responses in the database for lateranalysis.

FIG. 4 shows various example segmentation criteria that may be employedto generate the purposefully segmented subpopulations. As show in FIG.4, demographics criteria (e.g., sex, location, household size, householdincome, etc.), buying behavior (category purchase index, most frequentshopping hours, value versus premium shopper, etc.), past/currentpurchase history, channel (e.g., stores frequently shopped at,competitive catchment of stores within driving distance), behavioraleconomics factors, etc. can all be used to generate with a high degreeof granularity the segmented subpopulations. The examples of FIG. 4 aremeant to be illustrative and not meant to be exhaustive or limiting. Asmentioned, one or more embodiments of the invention generate thesegmented subpopulations automatically using automated populationsegmentation software that generates the segmented subpopulations basedon values of segmentation criteria.

FIG. 5 shows various example methods for communicating the testpromotions to individuals of the segmented subpopulations being tested.As shown in FIG. 5, the test promotions may be mailed to theindividuals, emailed in the form of text or electronic flyer or couponor discount code, displayed on a webpage when the individual accesseshis shopping or loyalty account via a computer or smart phone or tablet,and lastly display on an electronic pricing tag within a retailer'sstore. Redemption may take place using, for example, a printed coupon(which may be mailed or may be printed from an electronic version of thecoupon) at the point of sale terminal, an electronic version of thecoupon (e.g., a screen image or QR code), the verbal providing or manualentry of a discount code into a terminal at the store or at the point ofsale, or purchase of an item in a physical location that has thepromotion displayed. The examples of FIG. 5 are meant to be illustrativeand not meant to be exhaustive or limiting. One or more embodiments ofthe invention automatically communicate the test promotions toindividuals in the segmented subpopulations using software thatcommunicates/email/mail/administer the test promotions automatically. Inthis manner, subpopulation test promotions may be administeredautomatically, which gives manufacturers and retailers the ability togenerate and administer a large number of test promotions with lowcost/delay.

FIG. 6 shows, in accordance with an embodiment, various examplepromotion-significant responses. As mentioned, redemption of the testoffer is one strong indication of interest in the promotion. However,other consumer actions responsive to the receipt of a promotion may alsoreveal the level of interest/disinterest and may be employed by theanalysis engine to ascertain which test promotion variable is likely orunlikely to elicit the desired response. Examples shown in FIG. 6include redemption (strong interest), deletion of the promotion offer(low interest), save to electronic coupon folder (mild to stronginterest), clicked to read further (mild interest), forwarding to selfor others or social media sites (mild to strong interest), stopping tolook at an item within the store (mild interest), and picking up theitem in a physical store but ultimately not purchasing the item (stronginterest). As mentioned, weights may be accorded to various consumerresponses to allow the analysis engine to assign scores and provideuser-interest data for use in formulating follow-up test promotionsand/or in formulating the general public promotion. For example, lowinterest may be afforded a score of −0.75 to −0.25, mild interest couldbe afforded a score weight of 0.1-0.5, strong interest may be afforded ascore of 0.5-0.8, and purchase of the product may be afforded a scoreof 1. The examples of FIG. 6 are meant to be illustrative and not meantto be exhaustive or limiting.

FIG. 7 shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention, variousexample test promotion variables affecting various aspects of a typicaltest promotion. As shown in FIG. 7, example test promotion variablesinclude price, discount action (e.g., save 10%, save $1, 2-for-1 offer,etc.), artwork (e.g., the images used in the test promotion to drawinterest), brand (e.g., brand X potato chips versus brand Y potatochips), pricing tier (e.g., premium, value, economy), size (e.g., 32oz., 16 oz., 8 oz.), packaging (e.g., single, 6-pack, 12-pack, paper,can, etc.), channel (e.g., email versus paper coupon versus notificationin loyalty account). The examples of FIG. 7 are meant to be illustrativeand not meant to be exhaustive or limiting. As mentioned, one or moreembodiments of the invention involve generating the test promotionsautomatically using automated test promotion generation software byvarying one or more of the test promotion variables, either randomly orbased on feedback from the analysis of other test promotions or from theanalysis of the general public promotion.

FIG. 8 shows, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention, ageneral hardware/network view of the forward-looking promotionoptimization system 800. In general, the various functions discussed maybe implemented as software modules, which may be implemented in one ormore servers (including actual and/or virtual servers). In FIG. 8, thereis shown a test promotion generation module 802 for generating the testpromotions in accordance with test promotion variables. There is alsoshown a population segmentation module 804 for generating the segmentedsubpopulations in accordance with segmentation criteria. There is alsoshown a test promotion administration module 806 for administering theplurality of test promotions to the plurality of segmentedsubpopulations. There is also shown an analysis module 808 for analyzingthe responses to the test promotions as discussed earlier. There is alsoshown a general population promotion generation module 810 forgenerating the general population promotion using the analysis result ofthe data from the test promotions. There is also shown a module 812,representing the software/hardware module for receiving the responses.Module 812 may represent, for example, the point of sale terminal in astore, a shopping basket on an online shopping website, an app on asmart phone, a webpage displayed on a computer, a social media newsfeed, etc. where user responses can be received.

One or more of modules 802-812 may be implemented on one or moreservers, as mentioned. A database 814 is shown, representing the datastore for user data and/or test promotion and/or general publicpromotion data and/or response data. Database 814 may be implemented bya single database or by multiple databases. The servers and database(s)may be coupled together using a local area network, an intranet, theinternet, or any combination thereof (shown by reference number 830).

User interaction for test promotion administration and/or acquiring userresponses may take place via one or more of user interaction devices.Examples of such user interaction devices are wired laptop 840, wiredcomputer 844, wireless laptop 846, wireless smart phone or tablet 848.Test promotions may also be administered via printing/mailing module850, which communicates the test promotions to the users via mailings852 or printed circular 854. The example components of FIG. 8 are onlyillustrative and are not meant to be limiting of the scope of theinvention. The general public promotion, once generated, may also becommunicated to the public using some or all of the user interactiondevices/methods discussed herein.

As can be appreciated by those skilled in the art, providing aresult-effective set of recommendations for a generalized publicpromotion is one of the more important tasks in test promotionoptimization.

In one or more embodiments, there are provided adaptive experimentationand optimization processes for automated promotion testing. Testing issaid to be automated when the test promotions are generated in themanner that is likely produce the desired response consistent with thegoal of the generalized public promotion.

For example, if the goal is to maximize profit for the sale of a certainnewly created brand of potato chips, embodiments of the inventionoptimally and adaptively, without using required human intervention,plan the test promotions, iterate through the test promotions to testthe test promotion variables in the most optimal way, learn and validatesuch that the most result-effective set of test promotions can bederived, and provide such result-effective set of test promotions asrecommendations for generalized public promotion to achieve the goal ofmaximizing profit for the sale of the newly created brand of potatochips.

The term “without required human intervention” does not denote zerohuman intervention. The term however denotes that the adaptiveexperimentation and optimization processes for automated promotiontesting can be executed without human intervention if desired. However,embodiments of the invention do not exclude the optional participationof humans, especially experts, in various phases of the adaptiveexperimentation and optimization processes for automated promotiontesting if such participation is desired at various points to injecthuman intelligence or experience or timing or judgment in the adaptiveexperimentation and optimization processes for automated promotiontesting process. Further, the term does not exclude the optionalnonessential ancillary human activities that can otherwise also beautomated (such as issuing the “run” command to begin generating testpromotions or issuing the “send” command to send recommendationsobtained).

II. Offer Generation

As noted previously, offers may be presented by the retailer effectivelyas they have control over the retail space, and being furthest along inthe supply chain, typically have more margin available to makemeaningful discounts. Likewise, they can collect transaction logs fordownstream analysis of the offer effectiveness. However, while retailersare excellent at selling goods, they typically lack the backendinfrastructure and expertise to properly generate, administer andanalyze a comprehensive promotional campaign. And even though retailershave more margin available to implement discounts, it is oftenundesirable to bear the entire burden of a discount as this maysignificantly impact profitability.

Additionally, manufacturers themselves have a strong interest in havingtheir specific products promoted (especially over their competitor'sproducts). To this end, manufacturers often issue retailer independentmanufacturer's coupons, or coordinate with retailers to generatepersonalized offers. Manufacturer's coupons are a blanket approach,costly to the manufacturer, difficult for the retailer or consumer toredeem, and of limited discount amount (as this cost is placed entirelyupon the manufacturer).

Personalized offers, on the other hand, can be significantly moreeffective as they target consumers that are most likely to be swayed bythe promotion. Additionally, as both the manufacturer and the retailerare sharing the cost associated with the promotion, the offer can eitherbe more significant or the reduction in profit may be reduced for eachparty.

As previously addressed, such personalized offer campaigns may generallytake one of two formats: personalized mailers, or personalized offersthrough a digital application of the retailer. Personalized mailersutilize third party consultants for the generation and presentation ofoffer structures to manufacturers. Generally these consultants operateon behalf of the retailer, extract a significant fee for their services,and “personalize” the offers by delivering the mailers to a particularzip code or by some other non-granular method (high cost low return).Mailers are also subject to fraud through the redemption of counterfeitcoupon barcodes.

In contrast, a retailer application (such as Cartwheel by Target) allowsfor a greater degree of personalization of the offer, since each offermay directed to specific ‘known’ individuals based upon their buyinghabits. These applications are retailer specific, meaning that offerscan only be made through that retailer, the retailer is responsible fordetermining which consumers to target with a given offer, a consumerneeds to be aware of and use the retailer's application, and lastly theconsumer can only redeem the offer at that given retailer.

This raises a number of problems, as noted, retailers are not wellpositioned to determine which consumers to target due to their limiteddata analytics expertise. Most (˜80%) of the consumers at a givenretailer do not use their promotional application. Over time it isexpected that more consumers will engage with a retailer using theseapplications due to general consumer acceptance, however, ongoingtechnical glitches, lack of decent cellular service in many retailerbuildings, and the fact that the consumer needs separate applicationsfor each retailer, limits consumer adoption. Thus, while the number ofconsumers using these applications may increase over time, it isunlikely that even a simple majority of consumers will routinely employa promotion application of a retailer. Lastly, a consumer doesn't wantto travel to multiple retailers to get items at preferred pricing, soredemption of an offer at a wide range of retailers would be welcome bymany consumers.

In order to improve the prior methods of personalized offer creation,delivery and redemption, systems and methods of a collaborative offerportal and associated backend systems are provided, as well as systemand method for a democratized offer redemption, which will be describedin greater detail in the following section. To facilitate thediscussion, FIG. 9 provides an example block diagram of an offergeneration architecture 900. A plurality of retailers 910 a-x mayinteract with a plurality of manufacturers 920 a-y using an offer system960 intermediary. This offer system 960 replaces the activitiestypically performed by a third party consultant, but delivers morerefined and accurate results at a much lower cost than traditionalmethods. The offer system 960 may access one or more data stores 980,which may be populated with offer structures from the offer system 960,transaction logs from the retailers 910 a-x, product details from themanufacturers 920 a-y and additional third party data (such as tradegroup analytical data).

The various components of the offer generation architecture communicatewith one another via a network 950. This network 950 may include theinternet, cellular network(s), private or municipal local and wide areanetworks, or any combination thereof. In some particular embodiments,persons employed at the retailer and manufacturer may access the offersystem on a web based application via the internet and a web browser.The offer system 960 received inputs from the manufacturer regardingscope and structure of a proposed offer campaign. The system can thengenerate analytics for the proposed offer and enable optimizations ofboth the offer structure and return on investment (ROI) of the offer.Once the manufacturer is satisfied with the offer proposition it may bepresented to retailers in a marketplace that allows retailers to reviewand determine which offer campaigns would be desirable for theirparticular business. The system identifies the consumers to which theoffer will be delivered, the exact costs, and the expected returns. Theoffers may then be delivered by mailers, email messages, loyaltyapplication programs, text messages, etc. The entire service isstatistically driven and automated, allowing for highly targeted andefficient administration.

The offer system 960 is presented in greater detail at FIG. 10. Asnoted, the data store(s) 980 includes, at a minimum, transaction logs981 collected from one or more retailers, shopper weight values 983,product data 985 from the manufacturers, and a repository of prioroffers 987. The offer repository 987 allows manufacturers to rapidlyselect offers for deployment rather than generating entirely new offerstructures. Analytics may be stored along with the offer for a givenpopulation base, and if already deployed previously, the actual responseresults. This saves significant computational resources, which improvesthe server's operation by delivering meaningful results with minimaladditional computational load.

The shopper weight values 983 in contrast are retailer specific valuesthat are set by each retailer to assist in prioritizing the consumersegments that are to be targeted, and determining the value of any givenoffer as it pertains to that retailer. These values are provided by eachretailer to the data store 980, and are leveraged by the offer system960 for the ROI calculation. Thus, even for a given offer proposition bya manufacturer, the value and the degree of cost sharing will differ byeach retailer by the consumers associated with the retailer, and alsothe retailer's priorities. The data store 980 may also include datacollected from third party data sources (not illustrated) such as socialmedia data feeds, governmental data sources, public databases andsubscription data feeds (e.g., Nielsen, industry associations, etc.).

The offer system itself 960 includes an audience definition engine 963that determines the consumers at play for a given retailer using loyaltycard information, credit card data, pharmacy identifiers, and thirdparty data (social media data, public records, etc.). For the definedconsumer audience, the ROI for a given offer structure is determinedusing an ROI analyzer 965. The ROI analyzer utilized transaction logsand data known for each of the consumers, along with the shopper weights983 from the retailers, to calculate a “value” for each consumer. Theconsumers are then aggregated into buckets of a defined size by thisvalue. Thus, for any given promotion with a particular number of offersbeing issued, the total value of the offer campaign may be determinedbased upon the value of the consumers that receive the offer.

The offer scope and structure are received from the manufacturer via aweb based offer portal 961, in some embodiments. The ROI results arethen presented to the manufacturer via the same interface. A percentagecalculator 969 determines, based upon the value to the retailer, apercentage of cost that each party would be responsible for, which islikewise displayed upon the offer portal 961. The percentage calculationmay be a linear equation correlating percentages to the calculated ROIvalue of the offer campaign, or may correlate using some other criteria(e.g., logarithmic, inverse, etc.).

Also provided via the offer portal is an offer optimizer 967 which canprovide optimizations for both the offer scope/size, and for the offerstructure. Offer structure optimization may include using results fromprior offer experimentations, as discussed in considerable detailpreviously, to select “winning” variable value combination to improvethe offer effectiveness. Generally the offer optimization will maintainthe product type static, and marginally adjust the total discount level,and enable greater differences in offer structural components. This isbecause the manufacturer, when setting up the proposed offer, have avery clear idea of which product they wish to promote. As such thisvariable is artificially maintained consistent. The manufacturer alsohas a degree of discount that they desire to offer the product at. Thisdegree of discount may be marginally varied (by plus or minus tenpercent in some embodiments), but significant deviation from thediscount amount can cause frustration or annoyance to somemanufacturers. However, once a manufacturer has successfully leveragedthe proposed systems and methods repeatedly, this discount amountdeviation may be increased (to plus or minus 25% for example) as themanufacturer gains confidence in the system's operation and valueproposition. In yet other embodiments, the manufacturer may set athreshold of how much the discount amount may be modified via an offerstructure optimization.

The offer type, graphic, and other possible variables, may likewise beoptimized for. Unlike the product and discount amount, these variablesare often less constrained, and the optimization may pair winningvariables values even if they differ significantly from the originallyproposed offer. For example, a manufacturer may initially propose “25%off the regular price of $3.99”. The discount amount is one dollar inthis offer. The system may determine, based upon the prior discussedexperimentation, that for this product a promotion of “2 for $6” is moreeffective, even though the discount amount is equivalent. Themanufacturer is not generally concerned if the offer is a “buy X for Y”percentage off, advertised discount price, etc. Rather, the manufactureris concerned with the depth of discount and margin of the sale. Thus,the system is granted significant latitude in altering these types ofvariables in the pursuit of an optimal offer structure.

The offer size optimization, on the other hand, determines the size ofthe optimization that balances the goals of the retailer andmanufacturer, with the expected return. As noted, the system groupscustomers by their calculated value. An offer campaign that is sent outto ten thousand consumers can thus be targeted to the ten thousand mostvaluable customers, yielding a greater return than if it were to targetless valuable customers. Thus, by definition, as the size of the offercampaign increases, the less and less valuable customers need to betargeted. This generates an incentive to have limited smaller offercampaigns, but when the campaign is too small, it can result innegligible lift in sales, and less impact. Thus, for any given offercampaign there is an optimal size that reaches enough consumers to beeffective, but still manages to largely target only consumers that aredeemed “valuable”. This optimal size, is dependent upon the valuedistribution of customers. For example, if a retailer has thirtythousand customers that are rated highly, and there is a significantdrop-off in consumer value after this cohort, the optimal size may belimited to these thirty thousand consumers. In contrast however, if theretailer has only five thousand very high value consumers, and then agradual decline of value over the next fifty thousand customers, andthen a sharper decline thereafter, the optimal offer campaign could belimited to an average of the consumer values above a configuredthreshold. Depending upon the degree of value decline after the initialfive thousand consumers and the configured average value threshold, forthis example the offer size could vary from perhaps ten thousand offersto fifty five thousand customers.

In some embodiments, the offer system may include a plurality of virtualsystems operating for each retailer. In these embodiments, themanufacturer(s) access the offer system for a given retailer whichdefines the consumer audience by the consumers specific to thatparticular retailer. The ROI values, offer optimizations and percentagecalculations would likewise be calculated specifically for the givenretailer. In alternate embodiments, the offer system may be genericizedfor multiple retailers, and audiences are defined for each applicableretailer, and associated analytics and discount percentages aregenerated for each retailer as well. An ‘average’ set of data may bepresented to the manufacturer for assisting in the offer generation inthese embodiments, which can then be tailored to each interestedretailer in subsequent stages.

Turning now to FIG. 11, the process for offer administration is providedgenerally at 1100. This process initially starts with offer generation(at 1110) which is described in greater detail in reference to FIG. 12.In this sub process the manufacturer accesses the offer portal (at 1210)where they generate a proposed product offer (at 1220). FIG. 16 providesan example screenshot image of such a product offering, shown generallyat 1600. The system takes the proposed offer and generates the ROI valuedistribution for the consumer base (at 1230). FIG. 13 provides greaterdetail regarding this RIO calculation. Initially weights for shopperheadroom, product headroom and product importance are received from theretailer (at 1310). Shopper headroom is defined as whether the shopperalready purchases the type of product for which the offer is beinggenerated, and if not, if this is the kind of person that might possiblypurchase this kind of product in response to an offer. Shopper headroomcan also be generalized to a determination of how much additional spendthe shopper is capable of likely to spend if properly motivated. Productheadroom, similarly, is the additional amount of cost that theparticular shopper may be willing to spend on the particular product.Product importance is a determination of how valuable the particularproduct is to retaining a given shopper. For example, for most grocers,eggs and milk are considered anchor products. Retailers take great painsto keep the prices of these products low because they are believed tokeep customers coming back regularly. Product importance can bedetermined for a given shopper based upon the frequency it is purchasedand degree of loyalty to the retailer and brand the shopper exhibits.

The values for the shopper headroom, product headroom and productimportance are then calculated for a given shopper (at 1320).Transaction logs from the retailer are utilized in this determination.For shopper headroom, a shopper who already purchases the product may begiven a high shopper headroom score. A consumer that has not purchasedthe product before may be given a lower score based upon a propensitymodel that is generated for the individual. The propensity modelutilizes machine learning to group together consumers by purchasingbehaviors, and the percentage of consumers in the group that purchasethe product is set as the consumer's propensity for purchasing theproduct. The grouping may leverage deep learning neural networks, orknown clustering algorithms, such as least mean square.

Instead of grouping consumers, alternate embodiments may generate thepropensity model for the consumer by identifying one or more factorsthat indicate the consumer is likely to purchase the item. This includeslooking at products purchased historically by the shopper in a productsimilarity matrix (closer degree of past product purchase to the givenproduct signifies a greater purchase propensity), and modeling featuressuch as frequency, recency, past purchases, and customer segmentationfeatures to a propensity value using neural network abstractions basedupon training data from other consumers. Additionally, collaborativefiltering with the retailer may be employed in determining thepropensity model for a given consumer.

Calculation of product headroom includes calculating price elasticityfor the product in question for the particular consumer to the degreethat sufficient transaction logs are present. More frequently however,the consumer is grouped with similar consumers based upon priorpurchasing behaviors (again, clustering algorithms and/or machinelearning may be employed in the grouping of consumers). The priceelasticity measures for this consumer segment are then determined fromthe transaction logs, and may be used as the product headroom for theparticular shopper in lieu of the elasticity for the particular shopperfor the product.

Product importance is calculated by the frequency/degree of regularitythat the given shopper purchases the given product. This may becalculated as a percentage of the shopping trips the consumer purchasesthe given good. Product importance may additionally be calculated basedupon how important the product is to keeping the shoppers loyalty to theretailer. If the shopper is a high volume shopper of this product thathistorically is a low volume product, for example, would be an indicatorof retailer loyalty. Similarly, product brand loyalty may contribute tothe determination of the product's importance. For example, a consumerthat purchases exclusively Diet Coke would indicate a high degree ofbrand loyalty. A consumer that purchases Coke Zero Sugar as well wouldhave lower brand loyalty. Further, a consumer that purchases Diet Pepsiand house branded diet cola would indicate a low degree of brandloyalty.

Additionally, the overall shopper value is calculated. This calculationis significantly more straight forward that the other calculations, andis based upon the size and frequency of all purchases performed by theconsumer. The number of individuals in the household may also bedetermined and impact the overall shopper value. In yet otherembodiments, the life stage of the members of the household may bedetermined and impact their shopper value. For example, a young couplewith an infant may be a relatively low value shopper, but theexpectation that their expenses will be increasing significantly with agrowing family, and as they enter prime earning years may be utilized toadjust their value upwards speculatively. In contrast, if the householdhas been tracked for a significant period of time, and it is determinedthat members are nearing adulthood (and are likely to leave thehousehold for college or a career) then what may be a generally highvalued shopper household may be speculatively adjusted downwardaccordingly.

Loyalty card information, pharmacy identification, and credit cardinformation may all be linked together to identify discrete consumer“households” for the purposes of all of these calculations. In thecontent of this application, a shopper, consumer, customer and householdare all utilized interchangeable, and are indicative of a purchasingentity. This may include a single individual, but more often includesgroupings of people that either cohabit with one another, or belong to acommon organization; for example a church group or coworkers could beconsidered a “household” for the purposes of data analysis in someembodiments.

The calculated shopper headroom, product headroom and product importanceare all then multiplied by the weights supplied initially by theretailer to reflect the retailer's priorities (at 1330). The resultingvalues may then be combined together by normalized summation or bymultiplication to generate an overall ROI value for the given consumer.This ROI value may, in some cases, be further modified by the shoppervalue that was calculated, and/or a product segment importance set bythe retailer. This modification may include weighting the ROI value forthe product and shopper by these values.

Once the ROI value has been determined for each shopper, they may becollected into equally sized buckets to generate a value distribution(at 1340). FIG. 17 provides an example illustration of the ROIdistribution calculation, shown generally at 1700.

Returning to FIG. 12, after the ROI distribution has been generated forthe shoppers at the retailer for the given product, the discountpercentages that are paid by the retailer and manufacturer arecalculated (at 1240). FIG. 14 provides a more detailed diagram of thisprocess. The number of offers being considered as part of the campaignare initially plotted against the shopper distribution (at 1410) thatwas previously calculated. The value of for the retailer is thuscalculated (at 1420) based upon the average value, per offer. This isthe area under the curve over the distribution curve from zero to thenumber of offers in the promotion campaign, divided by the total numberof offers issued. For a retailer with a large number of high ROI valuedconsumers versus the number of offers being considered in the campaign,this value will be larger. The retailer value is then correlated(generally linearly, logarithmically or exponentially) to a percentageof the offer cost that the retailer is expected to pay versus themanufacturer (at 1430). FIGS. 19A and 19B illustrate this percentagedetermination for a given shopper distribution. In FIG. 19A, an offercampaign in proposed for 30,000 offers. The distribution indicates thatthe retailer has 10,000 shoppers with a high ROI value for this product,but the subsequent 10,000 shoppers have an ROI value that is roughlyhalf that of the first segment of consumers. Values decrease modestlyfor each subsequent grouping of consumers. For the first 30,000consumers that have the highest ROI value, the average value isdetermined to be relatively high, as seen at 1900 a. In contrast, atFIG. 19B, when the offer campaign is extended out to the top 100,000consumers the ROI value per offer is nearly 30% lower than the morelimited offer proposal. The shape of a distribution of shoppers, andtotal number of offers considered are dispositive in determining theaverage ROI value for the retailer.

Returning to FIG. 12, after discount percentages are calculated for theproposed offer, the offer predictions may be calculated (at 1250). FIG.15 details the process for these prediction calculations, which includecalculating the total cost, for both retailer and manufacturer, for theoffer campaign (at 1510). This cost calculation is a summation of thepromotion discount plus times the number of offers being considered,plus the administrative cost for the offer, multiplied by the shareattributed to the retailer and the manufacturer, respectively. Forexample, a discount of a dollar over ten thousand offers will cost$10,000. An email distribution will be less than a mailer.Administrative costs will often benefit from economies of scale, so theper offer cost will go down as the total number of offers increases. Forthis example, however, assume the administrative costs are $2,000.Likewise assume the retailer is responsible for one third the cost, andthe manufacturer the remaining two thirds. Thus the retailer cost iscalculated as $4,000, and the manufacturer $8,000 in this example.

While costs are calculated with assurance, the system additionallygenerated a number of predicted values, including the expected sales (at1520) determined from previous transactions as discussed in significantdetail in the prior section. Incremental sales are likewise calculated(at 1530) by referencing test results and past sales data, and grossmargin estimates are populated (at 1540). Calculating gross margin forthe manufacturer requires the manufacturer's per-unit margin details,which may be unknown to the retailer, therefore a table can be providedshowing all possible margin percentages. FIG. 18 provides an examplescreenshot of a dashboard 1800 showing the offer details, costspredicted sales, predicted incremental sales and gross margin estimates.The manufacturer has the option of editing the offer manually, orperforming an offer structure optimization or an offer size optimization(spend optimization).

Returning for FIG. 12, after the prediction have all been made, themanufacturer determines if the offer is complete (at 1255). If not, thespend may be optimized (at 1260) and/or the offer structure may beoptimized (at 1270) in the manners described previously. Transactionlogs and promotion experimentation results can be used to modify theoffer variables when offer structure is optimized. Again, the product isleft unchanged, and discount levels are generally maintained, but otheroffer variables may be altered to make the offer more effective. Thespend optimization is dependent upon the predicted ROI valuedistribution, and ensures that the value to the retailer is sufficientlymet. High spend correlates to pushing the offer to a broader,less-targeted audience and therefore devalues the offer to the retailer,by devaluing the offers pushed to the retailer's customers. By balancingthe targeting-precision of the offers with the percentage of the costscovered by the manufacturer, the system encourages manufacturers totarget their spend to the advantage of the retailer. Highly targetedpromotions, limited to the shoppers most interested, require the lowestpercentage of manufacturer funding while the least-targeted promotionsrequire the highest percentage of manufacturer funding

This process repeats until the offer is completed, at which stage theoffer is published in a marketplace for acceptance by the retailer (at1280). Once accepted the offer is administered (at 1290). Returning toFIG. 11, the campaign is planned (at 1120) including the vehicle ofoffer presentation, timing, length of offer etc. The offer is thenpublished accordingly (at 1130) to the identified most highly ROI valuedconsumers via mailer, email, SMS message, or other personalizedtransmission. The offer is presented and stored by the consumers (at1140), and eventually redeemed (at 1150). The system may then performanalysis (at 1160) of the offer results, including the collection andupdating of transactions logs. The offer repository data may be appendedwith information regarding the offer effectiveness as well for futurereference.

III. Offer Redemption

Moving on, FIG. 20 illustrates a block diagram of an examplearchitecture for the redemption of offers in a manner that is nottethered to any particular retailer, shown generally at 2000. It shouldbe noted that this offer redemption system may be employed with anyoffer generation and administration frontend. While particularlypowerful systems and methods for the generation of offers has beendescribed in the previous section, even offers generated by traditionalthird party consultants could benefit from the offer redemptionmethodologies described herein. Likewise, while this system and methodfor offer redemption has distinct benefits compared to prior offerredemption techniques, the above described offer generation may likewisebe employed using only traditional offer redemption technologies. Ofcourse the combination of these techniques provides a full optimizedoffer lifecycle system that is unmatched by prior technologies, howeverthe combination is not necessary and shall not limit the scopes of thepresent inventions.

In the offer redemption system the retailers 2010 a-x are visited byconsumers 2020 a-y. At the retailer they purchase items for which thereare active offers. Payment at the retailers is made at a point of sale(POS) terminal, which connects via the internet, telephone lines orsecure network 2050 to a payment processor 2030. The payment processor2030 may be third party entities that manage the payments between themerchant/retailer 2010 a-x and the financial institutions 2060.Financial institutions 2060 may include banks, credit card companies andthe like.

Traditional offer redemption by manufacturer coupon could be redeemed ata number of retailers, but involves physical coupons that are a hasslefor consumers and retailers alike. Additionally, these coupons aresubject to a significant fraud risk, as previously discussed. Incontrast, loyalty applications and loyalty cards are retailer specific,so while redemption is easier at the given retailer, it requires theconsumer to use the retailer loyalty application (which as discussed fewconsumers actually do), and requires a different offer application foreach retailer. If a consumer shops at Walmart, Target, Safeway, KingSoopers, and two local grocery chains this would require the consumer todownload and manage six separate loyalty applications. For many people,even those that are comfortable using loyalty applications, this isdemanding, and may discourage shopping a less frequented retailers oravoidance of the applications.

The present systems and methods improve upon these systems by enablingoffer redemption at any participating retailer (like manufacturers'coupons), without the need for physical coupons and the attendant hassleand fraud potential. This is accomplished by allowing for an offerapplication that is retailer agnostic and that leverages a democratizedoffer redemption system 2040 which operates with the payment systems2030 to allow offer redemption.

FIG. 21 provides a more detailed view of the democratized offerredemption system 2040. Core to the system is the ability to collectdata from the retailers regarding loyalty card information, pharmacyidentification and credit card information. In the manner disclosedpreviously, this data can be cross referenced to correlate particularpayment methods (credit card and debit card numbers) to householdidentification. The consumer ID is then linked to promotional offersbeing provided to that household in a dataset 2110. When a paymenttransaction is received via the payment gateway interface 2120, thepayment data may be compared against the known households by an IDmatcher 2130. When a suitable match is determined, applicable offers arecommunicated back to the retailer so that the payment total isreflective of the offer, and subsequently an offer clearer 2140 is ableto purge the promotion from the system to ensure that the offer is notduplicated.

Due to the number of entities interacting in this process, a diagram isprovided at FIG. 22 that illustrates the communication between therespective systems, shown generally at 2200. The consumer selectsproducts at the retailer (or online where applicable) and at theretailer point of sale engages in payment of the products. The paymentdata is collected at the POS and transferred to the payment gateway,which communicates it to the offer redemption system. The system matchesthe payment identification to an ID, and provides back the offer detailsto the payment gateway, which in turn supplies the details back to thePOS terminal.

The offer is processed at the POS terminal to update the price. Theupdated total is provided to the payment gateway, which performs twoactions. Firstly, the offer redemption system is notified of the offerbeing successfully applied, at which point the offer is cleared toprevent repeated use. Secondly, the payment system initiates the fundtransfer with the appropriate financial institution.

An approval of the funds transfer is provided back from the paymentgateway to the POS terminal, which generates a receipt reflecting theoffer to the consumer.

On the offer redemption system the following process takes place, asseen in reference to FIG. 23, shown generally at 2300. The paymentidentifier from the consumer is collected (at 2310) and an expansivedataset correlating this payment ID to a consumer identity is performed.The correlation is based upon pharmacy identification (if available),and transaction log information linking the payment number to a loyaltycard. Additional data such as social media feeds, or public records maybe employed in determining household members and correlating theindividuals to a set of offers and other promotions.

Thus, when a consumer makes a payment at a participating retailer, thepayment data is transmitted and received by the system (at 2320) whichin turn is used to match to an identity in the previously generateddataset. This matching allows offers that are available to the consumerto be retrieved (at 2340) and returned (at 2350) to the payment gateway(and ultimately the retailer). Once confirmation is received that thecoupon has been properly applied, the redemption system may clear theoffer from the dataset to avoid redundant usage/fraudulent activity (at2360).

IV. System Embodiments

Now that the systems and methods for the optimization of promotionalvariables and bae prices in a physical retail setting have beendescribed, attention shall now be focused upon apparatuses capable ofexecuting the above functions in real-time. To facilitate thisdiscussion, FIGS. 24A and 24B illustrate a Computer System 2400, whichis suitable for implementing embodiments of the present invention. FIG.24A shows one possible physical form of the Computer System 2400. Ofcourse, the Computer System 2400 may have many physical forms rangingfrom a printed circuit board, an integrated circuit, and a smallhandheld device up to a huge super computer. Computer system 2400 mayinclude a Monitor 2402, a Display 2404, a Housing 2406, a storage Drive2408, a Keyboard 2410, and a Mouse 2412. Medium 2414 is acomputer-readable medium used to transfer data to and from ComputerSystem 2400.

FIG. 24B is an example of a block diagram for Computer System 2400.Attached to System Bus 2420 are a wide variety of subsystems.Processor(s) 2422 (also referred to as central processing units, orCPUs) are coupled to storage devices, including Memory 2424. Memory 2424includes random access memory (RAM) and read-only memory (ROM). As iswell known in the art, ROM acts to transfer data and instructionsuni-directionally to the CPU and RAM is used typically to transfer dataand instructions in a bi-directional manner. Both of these types ofmemories may include any suitable of the computer-readable mediadescribed below. A Fixed Medium 2426 may also be coupledbi-directionally to the Processor 2422; it provides additional datastorage capacity and may also include any of the computer-readable mediadescribed below. Fixed Medium 2426 may be used to store programs, data,and the like and is typically a secondary storage medium (such as a harddisk) that is slower than primary storage. It will be appreciated thatthe information retained within Fixed Medium 2426 may, in appropriatecases, be incorporated in standard fashion as virtual memory in Memory2424. Removable Medium 2414 may take the form of any of thecomputer-readable media described below.

Processor 2422 is also coupled to a variety of input/output devices,such as Display 2404, Keyboard 2410, Mouse 2412 and Speakers 2430. Ingeneral, an input/output device may be any of: video displays, trackballs, mice, keyboards, microphones, touch-sensitive displays,transducer card readers, magnetic or paper tape readers, tablets,styluses, voice or handwriting recognizers, biometrics readers, motionsensors, brain wave readers, or other computers. Processor 2422optionally may be coupled to another computer or telecommunicationsnetwork using Network Interface 2440. With such a Network Interface2440, it is contemplated that the Processor 2422 might receiveinformation from the network, or might output information to the networkin the course of performing the above-described promotion offergeneration and redemption. Furthermore, method embodiments of thepresent invention may execute solely upon Processor 2422 or may executeover a network such as the Internet in conjunction with a remote CPUthat shares a portion of the processing.

Software is typically stored in the non-volatile memory and/or the driveunit. Indeed, for large programs, it may not even be possible to storethe entire program in the memory. Nevertheless, it should be understoodthat for software to run, if necessary, it is moved to a computerreadable location appropriate for processing, and for illustrativepurposes, that location is referred to as the memory in this disclosure.Even when software is moved to the memory for execution, the processorwill typically make use of hardware registers to store values associatedwith the software, and local cache that, ideally, serves to speed upexecution. As used herein, a software program is assumed to be stored atany known or convenient location (from non-volatile storage to hardwareregisters) when the software program is referred to as “implemented in acomputer-readable medium.” A processor is considered to be “configuredto execute a program” when at least one value associated with theprogram is stored in a register readable by the processor.

In operation, the computer system 2400 can be controlled by operatingsystem software that includes a file management system, such as a mediumoperating system. One example of operating system software withassociated file management system software is the family of operatingsystems known as Windows® from Microsoft Corporation of Redmond, Wash.,and their associated file management systems. Another example ofoperating system software with its associated file management systemsoftware is the Linux operating system and its associated filemanagement system. The file management system is typically stored in thenon-volatile memory and/or drive unit and causes the processor toexecute the various acts required by the operating system to input andoutput data and to store data in the memory, including storing files onthe non-volatile memory and/or drive unit.

Some portions of the detailed description may be presented in terms ofalgorithms and symbolic representations of operations on data bitswithin a computer memory. These algorithmic descriptions andrepresentations are the means used by those skilled in the dataprocessing arts to most effectively convey the substance of their workto others skilled in the art. An algorithm is, here and generally,conceived to be a self-consistent sequence of operations leading to adesired result. The operations are those requiring physicalmanipulations of physical quantities. Usually, though not necessarily,these quantities take the form of electrical or magnetic signals capableof being stored, transferred, combined, compared, and otherwisemanipulated. It has proven convenient at times, principally for reasonsof common usage, to refer to these signals as bits, values, elements,symbols, characters, terms, numbers, or the like.

The algorithms and displays presented herein are not inherently relatedto any particular computer or other apparatus. Various general purposesystems may be used with programs in accordance with the teachingsherein, or it may prove convenient to construct more specializedapparatus to perform the methods of some embodiments. The requiredstructure for a variety of these systems will appear from thedescription below. In addition, the techniques are not described withreference to any particular programming language, and variousembodiments may, thus, be implemented using a variety of programminglanguages.

In alternative embodiments, the machine operates as a standalone deviceor may be connected (e.g., networked) to other machines. In a networkeddeployment, the machine may operate in the capacity of a server or aclient machine in a client-server network environment or as a peermachine in a peer-to-peer (or distributed) network environment.

The machine may be a server computer, a client computer, a personalcomputer (PC), a tablet PC, a laptop computer, a set-top box (STB), apersonal digital assistant (PDA), a cellular telephone, an iPhone, aBlackberry, a processor, a telephone, a web appliance, a network router,switch or bridge, or any machine capable of executing a set ofinstructions (sequential or otherwise) that specify actions to be takenby that machine.

While the machine-readable medium or machine-readable storage medium isshown in an exemplary embodiment to be a single medium, the term“machine-readable medium” and “machine-readable storage medium” shouldbe taken to include a single medium or multiple media (e.g., acentralized or distributed database, and/or associated caches andservers) that store the one or more sets of instructions. The term“machine-readable medium” and “machine-readable storage medium” shallalso be taken to include any medium that is capable of storing, encodingor carrying a set of instructions for execution by the machine and thatcause the machine to perform any one or more of the methodologies of thepresently disclosed technique and innovation.

In general, the routines executed to implement the embodiments of thedisclosure may be implemented as part of an operating system or aspecific application, component, program, object, module or sequence ofinstructions referred to as “computer programs.” The computer programstypically comprise one or more instructions set at various times invarious memory and storage devices in a computer, and when read andexecuted by one or more processing units or processors in a computer,cause the computer to perform operations to execute elements involvingthe various aspects of the disclosure.

Moreover, while embodiments have been described in the context of fullyfunctioning computers and computer systems, those skilled in the artwill appreciate that the various embodiments are capable of beingdistributed as a program product in a variety of forms, and that thedisclosure applies equally regardless of the particular type of machineor computer-readable media used to actually effect the distribution

While this invention has been described in terms of several embodiments,there are alterations, modifications, permutations, and substituteequivalents, which fall within the scope of this invention. Althoughsub-section titles have been provided to aid in the description of theinvention, these titles are merely illustrative and are not intended tolimit the scope of the present invention. It should also be noted thatthere are many alternative ways of implementing the methods andapparatuses of the present invention. It is therefore intended that thefollowing appended claims be interpreted as including all suchalterations, modifications, permutations, and substitute equivalents asfall within the true spirit and scope of the present invention.

What is claimed is:
 1. A computer implemented method for a collaborativeoffer portal comprising: receiving a proposed offer from a manufacturer,wherein the proposed offer includes a number of consumers to target, aproduct, and an offer structure; accessing transaction logs for aretailer; receiving a set of weights from the retailer; calculating areturn on investment (ROI) value for each consumer by multiplying theset of weights to a set of the metrics and then combining the resultingweighted metrics by multiplication or normalized addition, wherein thefirst of the three metrics is a measure if a given consumer haspurchased the product in the past, the second of the three metrics is acalculation of price elasticity for the given consumer for the product,and the third of the three metrics is a measure of purchase frequency ofthe product by the given consumer; grouping the consumers into equalsized buckets by ROI value to generate an ROI distribution; selecting aplurality of buckets in the ROI distribution which are largest basedupon the number of consumers to target; calculating an average ROI valuefor the offers in the selected plurality of buckets.
 2. The method ofclaim 1, further comprising calculating a cost for a manufacturer basedupon the offer structure, number of consumers to target, and thediscount percentage.
 3. The method of claim 1, further comprisingcalculating a predicted redemption rate for the offer, predicted salesresponsive to the predicted redemption rate, predicted incrementalsales, and gross margin estimates.
 4. The method of claim 1, wherein thediscount percentage is linearly correlated to the average ROI value. 5.The method of claim 1, wherein the discount variable value isconstrained such that the value deviates less than 10% from a value ofthe proposed offer.
 6. A collaborative offer portal system comprising: aweb-based server for receiving a proposed offer from a manufacturer,wherein the proposed offer includes a number of consumers to target, aproduct, and an offer structure, and for receiving a set of weights fromthe retailer; a database for accessing transaction logs for a retailer;and a processor for calculating a return on investment (ROI) value foreach consumer by multiplying the set of weights to a set of the metricsand then combining the resulting weighted metrics by multiplication ornormalized addition, wherein the first of the three metrics is a measureif a given consumer has purchased the product in the past, the second ofthe three metrics is a calculation of price elasticity for the givenconsumer for the product, and the third of the three metrics is ameasure of purchase frequency of the product by the given consumer, andgrouping the consumers into equal sized buckets by ROI value to generatean ROI distribution, selecting a plurality of buckets in the ROIdistribution which are largest based upon the number of consumers totarget, calculating an average ROI value for the offers in the selectedplurality of buckets.
 7. The system of claim 6, wherein the processor isfurther for calculating a cost for a manufacturer based upon the offerstructure, number of consumers to target, and the discount percentage.8. The system of claim 6, wherein the processor is further forcalculating a predicted redemption rate for the offer, predicted salesresponsive to the predicted redemption rate, predicted incrementalsales, and gross margin estimates.
 9. The system of claim 6, wherein thediscount percentage is linearly correlated to the average ROI value. 10.The system of claim 6, wherein the discount variable value isconstrained such that the value deviates less than 10% from a value ofthe proposed offer.